A Couple of Late Presents.

There is an inverse relationship between the likelihood of a sure thing and its potential to return profits. Anyone suggesting otherwise should be kept as far from your wallet as possible. 

That said, in the market everything is a sure thing. The market will do exactly what it was supposed to do EVERYTIME. Unfortunately, humans are not very good at understanding what was supposed to happen. (but we're very good at explaining why after the fact)

Market risks are typically balanced. The smaller the return potential, the more likely the investment will work. The smallest and "surest" of said investments are arbitrage plays where two different holdings are likely to converge and a savvy investor can play one side (or both) to capitalize on the convergence. 

Some arbitrage plays are almost risk free and return fractions of pennies, but gains nonetheless. Other arbitrage plays involve risk but nothing that is currently visible. In other words, who could forecast a snow storm in June that might upset an agriculture play. 

A good example is upon us in the form of PSD a utility concern in Washington. The company was set for acquisition over a year ago at $30 per share cash. After initial excitement, the stock traded in the low $20 range for fear that the Washington regulators might squash the deal. Two announcements in as many weeks have indicated a green light from said regulators. Financing for the deal appears in hand, and executives suggest culminating the deal in a few weeks time. With the stock still under $28, a quick 5% return is likely for those willing to play short term deals such as this. 

Another, less sure, but highly likely arbitrage play is NNDS which is going private. At $63 per share cash, the current offering price is low and the deal will probably culminate by Feb 2009.

Enjoy...